またしても東京市場がグローバルな流れを変えた！背景は明らかに・・・/Tokyo markets have changed global direction again! It is clearly due to…
NY市場の値戻し基調が東京市場で一変！
2/13（火）の東京株式市場は前日の月曜が祝日だったため、今週最初の取引となった。先週末の取引が終わった後で、NYダウ指数は金曜に330.44、さらに月曜には410.37ポイントの上昇を見せており、東京市場が休んでいる間に3.1％値戻ししている。もちろんアジアや欧州市場もその動きをフォローする形になっている。当然東京市場でもこの流れを受け継ぎ、少なくとも今日一日くらいは力強い反発を見せるのではないかと期待された。ところがふたを開けてみれば、午前中こそ一時300ポイント高に迫る勢いがあったものの、徐々に弱含み、結局最後は前週末比△137.94（△0.65％）で引けた。先週の2/7（水）に続き、東京市場がグローバルな市場の方向性を止めてしまった形だ。
Tokyo markets have changed recovery direction of NY in drastic way!
Tokyo stock markets of 13. February was the first trading of the week as Monday fell on National holiday. After the close of Tokyo markets last week, NY Dow index have shown recovery trend as +330.44 points on Friday and +410.37 points on Monday, total recovery in 2 days was +3.1%. And most of Asian and European markets followed the trend from NY. Therefore people had believed Tokyo would show strong recovery sentiment at least today. However the result was very different. Although the Nikkei Average index reached almost +300 points during the morning session, the market became weaker and finally it closed -137.94(-0.65%). Just like the market of 7. February, Tokyo markets changed global direction again.
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先物主導の下落の背景は？
後場になって急速に勢いを失くした相場を引っ張ったのは先物市場の下落。継続的でまとまった売り注文が先物指数を下げ、現物市場を下落の方向に巻き込んでいった。すでに多くの方がお気づきだと思うが、こうしたことが起こるのは、「売らなければいけない人々、売らなければならないポジション」が存在するためだ。これまで買ってきた日本株ポートフォリオを大きなブロックで売らなければならないために、まず先物で売っておいてヘッジをかける。恐らくは外国人投資家がその主役だろうと考える。そのように考えてみると、現在のショック安が落ち着けば買い戻してくる向きも増えるだろうが、これまでの買い手がそのまま戻ってくるとは考えにくい。ここ1週間の下落相場の中で最も下落率が大きいのは日本と中国だ。これまで日本株を買ってきた外国人勢力の運用構造に変化が起きていると考えた方が良さそうだ。
本日の投資行動
相場がオープンする前には、自分でも今日一日くらいは値戻し基調が続くだろうから、前週末の決算発表などのコーポレートイベントを観ながらポジティブな銘柄のロング（買い）から始めてサヤを獲ろうと考えていた。特にダイフク、ファナック、SMCなどFA関連の好調が日経新聞でも報道されており、この中で寄付きの安いものに注目しようとも考えていた。
ただ寄付きから20分程度で相場の勢いの無さから考えを変更。寄付きが高過ぎると思った銘柄のショート（売り）から入ることに。具体的な例として、日経新聞で期待を呼ぶような論調だったベネッセホールディングス（9783）、凸版（7911）、安川電機（6506）を寄付き直後の高いところでショート、少しヒヤリとした場面もあったもののいずれも引けまでにかなり安く買戻しができた。
ちなみに構築中のポートフォリオの中で、この下落基調にあっても評価益を保っている銘柄が2つある。レンゴー（3941）とエンバイオHD（6092）でいずれも『Clean China』の投資テーマに基づくもの。1月の相場の中で最も大きな評価益を稼いでいたのはダイフク（6383）だったが、ベータ値も高く相場下落の中で反落ペースも大きかった。レンゴーとエンバイオHDに関しては、『Clean China』のテーマが思った以上に底堅いことを示したようなので、両銘柄とも本日のうちに追い買いを行った。
Tokyo markets have changed recovery direction of NY in drastic way!
Tokyo stock markets of 13. February was the first trading of the week as Monday fell on National holiday. After the close of Tokyo markets last week, NY Dow index have shown recovery trend as +330.44 points on Friday and +410.37 points on Monday, total recovery in 2 days was +3.1%. And most of Asian and European markets followed the trend from NY. Therefore people had believed Tokyo would show strong recovery sentiment at least today. However the result was very different. Although the Nikkei Average index reached almost +300 points during the morning session, the market became weaker and finally it closed -137.94(-0.65%). Just like the market of 7. February, Tokyo markets changed global direction again.
Why did Future index lead the decline？
It was Future index which led the sharp decline. Continuous and big lot of selling spree got down Future index and stock markets was fallen into downward spiral. As many of you have already recognized, it happens because “there are people who must sell and positions to sell off”. They had to sell Future index first before selling their Japanese Equities portfolio. I guess foreign investors are playing the main role. Once current “shock selling” is stabilized, some of investors would come back to buy stocks again. But it is not very realistic to expect all former buying power would come back again. In this downward phase, Japan and China are showing the biggest drops. It is better to consider that the structure of buying those markets is changing.
Today’s investment action
Before the market open, I had thought recovery sentiment would dominate the market at least today. So I had tried to start from long positions among stocks which are reported positive tone in Japan Economic Journal. For example FA related stocks like Fanuc, Daifuku, or SMC.
However I changed my mind in the first 20 minutes and I decided to start from short again like I did last week. For example I sold Benesse HD(9783), Toppan(7911), and Yasukawa Electric(6506) at strength right after openings and bought them back cheap before the closing.
Among my medium term target portfolio, there are 2 stocks which sustained positive gains. They are Rengo(3941) and Envio HD(6092), both “Clean China” theme stocks. As for Daifuku(6383) it made the biggest gain during January but it made sharp drop since last week as Beta was quite high level. I recognized “Clean China” is more sustainable theme than I had expected. And I bought those 2 stocks during the morning session.