日本の“老害”を考える：日本の凋落を招いた本質？/ Considering Japan’s ‘Cranky old geezer’: The Essence Behind Japan’s Decline?
Unexpected intrusion by an elderly guy: One day, in a resort condominium…
Since remote work has become part of my daily routine, I often spend my winters alone in the resort condominium I own in Echigo Yuzawa. This winter, I stayed there for about a week on several occasions, and I happened to see two young foreigners in the lobby on the ground floor. They were Lithuanian and Australian, here on a working holiday for the winter season at the nearby Gala Yuzawa Ski Resort. Lithuania, one of the Baltic States, was a first-time conversation partner for me.
(English text continues to the latter half of the page)
老人の乱入：ある日、リゾートマンションで・・・
在宅ワークが日常になってから、冬になると一人で越後湯沢に所有しているリゾートマンションに籠ることが多い。今年の冬も1週間程度の滞在を数回したが、１階のロビーで何度か若い2人の外国人に会った。聞けばリトアニア人とオーストラリア人で、近くのガーラ湯沢スキー場に冬季間のワーキングホリデーで来ているらしい。リトアニアと言えばバルト三国の一つ、自分も初めて会話する相手だ。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻をどのように感じているのか、一人当りGDPですでに日本を上回る経済力に成長した背景になった産業のインテリジェント化はどのように進んできたのか、など聞いてみたいことは山ほどある。オーストラリアの若者にも、今や本国に比べて半分から1/3にまで差が開いた安い時給の日本にこれからもワーキングホリデーでオーストラリアの若者は来るのか、色々なことを聞いてみたい。彼らに日本酒に興味はあるか、と聞いたら、元気にYes！と言われたので翌日の夜にこのロビーで一緒に飲もうと誘った。
ところが当日になって3人で集まると、そこに突然招かれざる客が紛れ込んだ。たまたまロビーに降りてきた70代と思しき老人（リゾート使いではなく住居として永住している地元民）が物珍しそうにテーブルに加わり、日本の老人にありがちな延々と続く“自分語り”が始まってしまう。いわく、自分はこの地域ではちょっと知られた存在なんだ、（彼らが持ってきたつまみのアラレを指さして）俺は米のプロだから知っているが、この菓子は酒蔵で酒造米を磨いて落とした米ヌカで作ったもんだ、こんなのを食うな、（彼らが持ってきた酒のグラスを見て）日本酒を飲むのにそんなグラスを使うな、俺がぐい呑みを持ってきてやる（と言って、自分の部屋から小さなぐい呑みを持ってくる）、と言った具合に“自分自慢”と“相手を見下しての知ったかぶり”が止まることがない。驚くべきことには、この方は体質的に酒が一滴も飲めないそうで、まったく素面のままでこの独演会を続けていること。アルコールに酔わずに、“俺は外人に日本のことを教えてやっている！”という状況に酔い痴れているとしか見えなかった。
もちろんこの方、英語は1ミリも分からず、最初の方こそリトアニア人の彼が気を利かせてスマホの翻訳アプリを貸してあげていたが、とにかく思いついた単語を叫ぶだけのような調子なのでAIでも翻訳不可能。途中からは自分に「これ言ってやって、言ってやって」と通訳をせがむようになる。他人の自分自慢を通訳させられるのは“地獄の時間”でしかなく、後半の方は通訳しているふりをしながら、「日本の老人は自分の話しかできないんだ、悪いね、これ以上しつこいようだったら無理にでも退場してもらおうか」などと話していたが、彼ら自身は「まあ別に悪気はないようだし、彼が楽しいならいいんじゃない」と鷹揚なスタンス。それでも１時間半ほど経って、眠くなってきたのか彼が部屋に戻ってくれた時には一同ほっとした。滅多に会えない国からの若者と酒を共にして世界がどのように動いているのか会話しようとしているときに、世界の片隅の日本の、さらにその日本の片隅の塩沢町（現在は南魚沼市に編入）で俺は偉かったんだ、という話しを一方的にされても物悲しいだけだった。
「老いの一徹」とはマルチタスク能力の劣化
思わぬところでマイペースの自分語り老人の乱入を受けて面食らったが、考えてみれば同じような場面は現代日本のそこら中で起こっているんじゃないだろうかと考えた。現役世代が互いの情報を交換して状況を見究め現実の改善を目指そうとしているところに、老人世代が入ってきて役に立たない自分話を延々と始める。これはダイレクトに業務の非効率に結びつく行動だ。アジアの多くの地域では儒教の伝統もあり年長者に対する敬意と遠慮があるが、少子化で若者世代が縮小し老齢世代の比率が挙がるばかりの日本の現状では、こうした場面は社会の中でますます増えざるを得ない。
自戒を交えて言うが、加齢によって人間の能力は明らかに劣化する。特に著しいのが「マルチタスク能力の鈍化」だ。マルチタスクとは、車の運転をする時に前後左右あらゆる方向に目を配りながらなおかつ前方に向かって車を走らせるように、業務を続けるうえで周囲の状況と新しい情報を咀嚼して現状を理解して正しい判断を下す能力だ。歳をとることによって視野が狭まり、さらに多方面からの情報を同時に素早く消化して現状を理解する能力も衰え、気が付いてみれば“昔の自分のことしか話せない”自分自身に気づくことになる。ただ多くの場合、老人自身が自分の能力劣化を正しく自覚することは少ない。自身の能力劣化を認めようとしない老齢者がいつまでも“能力はないが権力はある”ポジションを手放そうとしなければ組織としては潰滅的なことになる。『老いの一徹』という言葉が日本にはある。なんだかちょっといいもの、たとえばベテラン指導者の意志の強さを表すかのような表現だが、その現実は、多方面の情報を咀嚼、理解できる能力が無くなり、限られた情報で形成された思い込みにしがみつくことしかできなくなった老人の姿にすぎない。
幸いなことに多くの日本の会社には「定年制度」が存在し、経済活動における極端な“老害”の可能性は限定されている。ところがこうした老害防止策がまったく機能していない場所が「政界」だ。OECDの統計による日本の閣僚平均年齢は62.4歳と対象35か国の中で最も高い。たださらに際立つ傾向は、きわめて高齢な一部の政治家がフィクサーやキングメーカーとして政界全体を支配する隠然たる影響力を有している点だ。ここで下に、2人の政治家の写真を並べる。
左が二階俊博氏（85歳）、日本の与党である自民党で1983年以降40年以上当選を続けており、首相経験はないものの派閥の領袖として彼を抜きにして政権は維持できないと言われていた。長年にわたって政界のキングメーカーとして君臨してきた彼も、日本の政界を揺るがす「裏金問題」における責任回避を狙って、今年4月に国会議員から退くことを表明した。それに伴う記者会見における彼の最後の言葉は、
（引退には年齢も関係しているのか、という記者の質問に対して）
「お前だっていつかその歳になるんだよ、馬鹿野郎」
というあまりに低レベルの捨て台詞だった。
（MBS Newsより）
右は森喜朗氏（86歳）、1969年の初当選から自民党に属し、2000年には翌年までの短期間とは言え内閣総理大臣を務めている。彼は自民党の派閥の領袖をしていた時に（2024年現在、政界を揺るがす大騒動になっている）議員の裏金スキームを導入した疑いが濃厚だ。2012年に代議士を引退するが、その後も東京オリンピック組織委員会を始め数多くの団体の会長を務めて、依然として政界への影響力を維持している。彼の言動もこの時代には信じられないようなハラスメントのオンパレードで、講演やスピーチを行うたびに多くの舌禍事件を起こし続けている。
ここで敢えて「ルッキズム」の誹りを受けることを覚悟して言うが、この2人の、外見だけを見ると“老醜”としか見えない政治家に頼らなければ運営できない日本の政界をどう捉えるべきだろうか。一番の問題は、
＜周囲がパラダイムシフトを起こして世界のルールがすでに変わってしまったのに、旧態依然とした体制で政治を行おうとしている＞
ことだ。戦後日本の高度成長期には人口の増加と有効需要の絶え間ない膨張の中で、資源をいかに有効に配分して経済に弾みをつけるのか、が政治の役割だった。こうした環境の中で、日本は製造業を中心に大きな飛躍を遂げた。公共投資で有効需要を刺激する際には、高速道路や橋を架けるなど社会インフラを整備すれば大きな乗数効果を伴って需要が創出できた。そして建設会社は与党の票田として、政治家たちと密接な関係を築き上げた。
しかしこうした構図が実現できたのは、せいぜい90年代初頭まで。今や社会インフラや施設の“箱”を整えても、有効需要はついてこない。以前とは違い人口は減少し有効需要も効果的に創出できなくなり、かつてアメリカに次いで世界第2位だった名目GDPは中国、ドイツに抜かれて4位に転落、一人当りGDPに至っては32位と到底先進国とは言えないレベルまで凋落している。これまでの政治家は「増え続ける人口と需要」の中で管理能力を発揮すればよかったが、これからは「落ちていく人口、需要、経済力」に歯止めをかけて反転を促すという、これまでにノウハウのない政策を打たねばならない。以前とはまったく違った状況の中で、新しいルールと戦い方が必要な時に、40年以上以前に政治を学んだ政治家がいまだに当時学んだ政治と権力の掌握術をいつまでも手放さないのが、日本の政治の現状で日本の凋落の重要な要因になってはいまいか。
新しい時代のルールメーキングを逃した日本の産業界、若者は海外に出よ
政治の世界だけでなく経済においても、日本はすでに多くのものを失い続けている。時代が変わりパラダイムシフトが起こるたびに最大のチャンスを握るのは、時代の変化に即応した事業を創出して新しい時代のルールメーカーになる企業だ。20年前にIT革命が起こってからその先鋒となったのは、GAFA、すなわちGoogle, Amazon, Facebook（現在はメタ）、Appleといったところで日本企業には入る隙もなかった。近年のAI革命においても枢軸となる研究開発はアメリカ企業ばかりで、日本企業はまったくカヤの外だ。ふと気づけば、20年前には世界トップだった日本企業の半導体や液晶TVの市場シェアはいつの間にかほぼゼロに近づき、さらにこれまで世界をリードする商品を生産してきたエレクトロニクス企業は、リスクを伴う研究開発を諦め下請けからのパーツを組み立てて自社のブランドで売り出すという業態に変貌しつつある。「失われた30年」の間に日本企業は、出来うる限りリスク投資を切り詰め、利益を内部に蓄え続けてきた。企業収益を蓄えながらも、将来のための設備投資や、労働者への配分を怠っていれば、企業としての成長もなく、個人消費に支えられたマクロの経済成長も無くなるのはあまりに当たり前の経済原理だ。日本経済の不調は決して一時的なものではなく、歴史的な転換を伴った「凋落」と言えるものだ。日本の歴史は「スクラップ＆ビルド」の繰り返し、おそらくこの難局もいずれは反転するだろうが、日本人の特性として、いったん奈落の底まで落ち込まないと次の行動に移れないのもまた事実だ（過去ポスト「敗者日本の占領はすでに始まっている？『77年』は日本民族独自の興亡サイクルか」も参照のこと）。
こうした中で日本の若者たちは、どういった行動をとるべきか。自分たちが学生時代の人生訓はきわめて単純だった。学校で一生懸命勉強して、いい大学に入り、大きな企業に入れば、人よりましな人生が送れる、というのがそれだ。
しかし受験戦争を勝ち抜いた“勝者”として東京大学に入っても、世界大学ランキングでは29位、また現在の大企業があと30年間生き残っているのかも保証がない。かつて親世代から繰り返し刷り込まれた人生の規範はきわめて非効率で割の合わないものになった。
しかし近年になって、スポーツの世界ではメジャーリーグの大谷翔平や、NBAの八村塁など、これまでは考えられないほどに世界のトップで活躍する選手が目立ってきた。スポーツの世界だけではない。アカデミーの世界でも海外の大学、企業で活躍する日本人は確実に増えている。彼らに共通することは、最初から日本国内ではなく、世界基準で目標を策定して実現に到達したことだ。日本国内で教育を受け、日本社会の教えるとおりに生きることは、日本人の集団の中で秀でることが究極の目標だった。日本が世界のトップ市場であった時代にはこれで良かったかもしれないが、もはや日本は世界で戦える市場ではなく、日本国内で出世した人間の教えなど役に立たない。
これから人生を切り開く若者たちには、早いうちに海外に出ることを強く勧めたい。日本の基準、特に何十年も前の日本の成功体験を語るような老人の言うことよりも、世界の基準を自分の軸に持った方がいい。数十年単位の話になるかもしれないが、いつかは再び強い日本、帰ってくるべきホーム市場としての日本が復活するかもしれない。それまでは、国内の小さな集団の中で秀でることよりも、“個”としての自分を磨き鍛えることを考えるべきだ。
Unexpected intrusion by an elderly guy: One day, in a resort condominium…
Since remote work has become part of my daily routine, I often spend my winters alone in the resort condominium I own in Echigo Yuzawa. This winter, I stayed there for about a week on several occasions, and I happened to see two young foreigners in the lobby on the ground floor. They were Lithuanian and Australian, here on a working holiday for the winter season at the nearby Gala Yuzawa Ski Resort. Lithuania, one of the Baltic States, was a first-time conversation partner for me. I wanted to ask them about various things, such as how they felt about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and how the intelligentization of industries, which has already surpassed Japan in terms of per capita GDP, has progressed. I also wanted to ask the Australian youth if, given the now half to one-third lower wages in Japan compared to their home country, they would still come to Japan on working holidays. There were so many things I wanted to inquire about. When I asked them if they were interested in sake, they energetically responded with a ‘Yes!‘ So, I invited them to drink together in the lobby the next night.
However, on the day we were supposed to meet, an uninvited guest suddenly joined our group of three. A man in his 70s who seemed to be a local resident (not a resort user, but someone who permanently resides there) happened to come down to the lobby and curiously joined our table. What ensued was the typical endless monologue of a Japanese elderly person. He claimed to be a somewhat well-known figure in the area, pointed at the rice crackers they had brought, saying, ‘I’m a rice expert, so I know this snack is made from rice bran left over from polishing sake rice at a sake brewery. Don’t eat this.’ He also criticized the use of the glasses for drinking sake that they had brought, saying, ‘Don’t use those glasses for sake. I’ll bring you a sake cup,’ and he went to his room to get a small sake cups. His boasting and condescending attitude towards others never stopped. Remarkably, this man couldn’t drink a drop of alcohol due to his genetic makeup, yet he continued this one-man show completely sober, seemingly intoxicated with the situation of “I’m teaching foreigners about Japan!”
Of course, this man didn’t understand a single word of English. At first, the Lithuanian man kindly lent him his smartphone with a translation app, but he seemed to just randomly shout out words, making it impossible even for AI to translate. Eventually, he started demanding, ‘Translate this for me, translate this for me,’ to me. Translating someone else’s boasting was nothing short of ‘hellish.’ In the latter part, while pretending to translate, I said things like, ‘Japanese elderly people can only talk about themselves. Sorry, if he continues to be too persistent, should I ask him to leave?’ But the others took a generous stance, saying, ‘Well, he doesn’t seem to mean any harm, and if he’s enjoying himself, it’s fine.’ Still, after about an hour and a half, when he went back to his room, we all felt relieved. It was rather disheartening to be subjected to a one-sided conversation about how great he was in the corner of Japan, let alone in the corner of that corner, Shiozawa Town (now part of Minamiuonuma City), while we were trying to have a conversation about how the world is moving with young people from countries we rarely meet and sharing alcohol.
The ‘stubbornness of aging’ is a decline in multitasking ability
I was taken aback by the unexpected intrusion of an elderly guy narrating his own stories at his own pace, but upon reflection, similar situations seem to be happening all over modern Japan. While the active generations are exchanging information and trying to assess the situation to aim for real improvements, the elderly generation comes in and starts endlessly telling their irrelevant stories. This directly leads to inefficiency in tasks. In many Asian regions, there is respect and deference towards the elderly due to the Confucian tradition, but in Japan’s current situation where the younger generation is shrinking due to declining birth rates and the proportion of the elderly population is increasing, such situations are inevitable and increasing in society.
I say this with self-reflection, but human abilities clearly deteriorate with age. One of the most noticeable declines is in ‘multitasking ability.’ Multitasking is the ability to continue tasks while digesting surrounding circumstances and new information, understanding the current situation, and making correct judgments, much like driving a car while keeping an eye on all directions and moving forward. As getting old, their field of vision narrows, and their ability to quickly digest information from various sources simultaneously and understand the current situation also declines. Before you know it, you realize you can only talk about ‘yourself in the past.’ However, in many cases, elderly individuals do not properly acknowledge their decline in abilities. If elderly people who refuse to admit their declining abilities continue to hold onto positions of power with the notion of ‘no ability but still in power,’ it can be catastrophic for an organization. In Japan, there’s a term called ‘stubbornness of aging.’ It sounds somewhat noble, like it represents the strength of will of a veteran leader, but in reality, it’s nothing more than the image of an elderly person who has lost the ability to digest and understand information from various sources and clings to beliefs formed from limited information.
Fortunately, many Japanese companies have a ‘mandatory retirement age’ system, limiting the potential for extreme ‘elderly influence’ in economic activities. However, the prevention measures against such ‘elderly influence’ are entirely ineffective in the ‘political arena.’ According to OECD statistics, the average age of Japanese ministers is 62.4 years, the highest among 35 countries surveyed. But what’s more striking is the influence of some extremely elderly politicians who dominate the entire political arena as fixers or kingmakers. Below, I will present photos of two politicians.
The person on the left is Mr. Toshihiro Nikai (85 years old), who has been elected as a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for over 40 years since 1983. Although he has never been prime minister, it has been said that the government cannot be maintained without him as the leader of a faction. He, who has reigned as a kingmaker in the political arena for many years, announced his retirement from the National Diet in April of this year, aiming to evade responsibility for the ‘secret funds scandal’ that rocked Japan’s political world. His final words at the press conference announcing his retirement were shockingly low-level:
(Responding to a reporter’s question about whether age had anything to do with his retirement)
‘You’ll reach that age someday too, you idiot.’
It was a derogatory remark far below the expected level.
（MBS News）
On the right is Mr. Yoshiro Mori (86 years old), who has been a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since his first election in 1969 and served as Prime Minister for a short period until the following year in 2000. While he was the leader of a faction within the LDP (as of 2024, there is a major scandal shaking the political world), he is strongly suspected of introducing a secret funds scheme for members of the Diet. He retired as a member of the Diet in 2012 but continued to hold positions such as chairman of various organizations, including the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee, maintaining his influence in the political world. His actions and remarks have been riddled with unbelievable harassment in this era, causing numerous tongue-slip incidents every time he gives a lecture or speech.
Now, at the risk of being accused of ‘lookism,’ let’s address how we should perceive the Japanese political arena that relies on politicians who, based solely on appearance, seem to embody ‘old and ugly.’ The biggest problem is that:
<While the world has already undergone a paradigm shift and the rules of the world have changed, they are trying to conduct politics with an outdated system.>
In the post-war period of Japan’s high economic growth, the role of politics was to effectively distribute resources amid population growth and constant expansion of effective demand, boosting the economy. In such an environment, Japan made great leaps forward, especially in manufacturing. When stimulating effective demand through public investment, constructing social infrastructure such as highways and bridges led to significant demand creation with large multiplier effects. Construction companies built close relationships with politicians as their support base.
However, such a structure was viable at best until the early 1990s. Even if we now set up the ‘boxes’ of social infrastructure and facilities, effective demand doesn’t follow. Unlike before, the population is decreasing, and effective demand cannot be effectively generated. Japan, which once ranked second in the world in nominal GDP after the United States, has fallen to fourth place behind China and Germany, and its GDP per capita has plummeted to 32nd place, hardly qualifying as a developed country. While politicians in the past could demonstrate management abilities amidst ‘growing population and demand,’ now we need policies to halt and reverse the decline in ‘population, demand, and economic strength,’ something they have no experience in. In a completely different situation from before, when new rules and strategies are needed, politicians who learned politics more than 40 years ago still cling to the political and power-grabbing techniques they learned back then. Isn’t this a significant factor contributing to Japan’s decline in politics and its current state of decay?
Japan’s industry has missed the opportunity to make new rules for a new era; young people, go abroad
Not only in politics but also in the economy, Japan has been losing out on many fronts. Every time the era changes and a paradigm shift occurs, the biggest opportunities are grasped by companies that create businesses that respond promptly to the changing times and become the rule-makers of the new era. Since the IT revolution started 20 years ago, the vanguards have been companies like GAFA, namely Google, Amazon, Facebook (now Meta), and Apple, leaving no room for Japanese companies to enter. Even in the recent AI revolution, pivotal research and development are dominated by American companies, leaving Japanese companies completely out of the loop. And we find that the market share of Japanese companies in semiconductors and LCD panels, which were world leaders 20 years ago, has almost approached zero, and furthermore, electronics companies that had been producing leading products in the world have transformed into assembling parts from subcontractors and selling them under their own brand, giving up risky research and development. During the ‘lost 30 years,’ Japanese companies have cut risk investments to the bone and continued to accumulate profits internally. However, it’s a basic economic principle that if companies neglect future investment in facilities and distribution to workers while hoarding corporate earnings, there will be no corporate growth and no macroeconomic growth supported by personal consumption. The malaise of the Japanese economy is not temporary; it can be described as a ‘decline’ accompanied by a historical transformation. Japanese history has been characterized by a cycle of ‘scrap and build,’ and perhaps this difficult situation will eventually be reversed. However, as a characteristic of Japanese people, it’s also a fact that once they hit rock bottom, they cannot move on to the next action (refer to the past post ‘“Loser Japan” already being occupied ? “77 years” is original cycle of rise and fall for Japanese people？’).
In such circumstances, what should Japan’s young people do? Our generation’s life lessons from our student days were extremely simple: study hard at school, get into a good university, and if you join a big company, you’ll have a better life than most people. That was it. However, even if you manage to become a “winner” by getting into the University of Tokyo after winning the entrance exam battle, it’s ranked 29th in the world university rankings, and there’s no guarantee that current large corporations will survive for the next 30 years. The life norms that were repeatedly ingrained by the previous generation have become extremely inefficient and unprofitable.
However, in recent years, we’ve seen remarkable athletes like Shohei Ohtani in Major League Baseball and Rui Hachimura in the NBA, who excel at the top level of the world, something previously unthinkable. It’s not just in sports. In academia as well, there’s a definite increase in Japanese people thriving in overseas universities and companies. What they have in common is setting goals based on global standards from the beginning and achieving them. Being educated in Japan and living as taught by Japanese society was once the ultimate goal within the Japanese group. While this might have been fine when Japan was the top market in the world, Japan is no longer a market where you can compete globally, and the teachings of those who succeeded domestically in Japan are no longer useful.
For young people who are going to carve out their lives from now on, I strongly recommend going abroad as early as possible. It’s better to hold onto global standards as your axis rather than listening to the words of elderly people, especially those who talk about Japan’s success experiences from decades ago. It might take decades, but someday a strong Japan may revive, a Japan that should be a returning home market. Until then, instead of excelling in small domestic groups, young people should focus on polishing and training themselves as individuals.